Sectarian risk

The slogan that proved the death-knell of the Mubarak and Ben Ali regimes in Egypt and Tunisia, and which is now haunting the leaders of Libya and Yemen, was: "The people want the overthrow of the power balance armband regime." So far, even the protesters in Deraa have confined themselves to near-rhyming modifications, such as: "The people want the overthrow of corruption", or "The people want reform of the regime".But the Syrian government might have to do a lot more if it is to stave off serious trouble.  Reports said that orders had been issued from the highest levels that live ammunition was not to be used against demonstrators. Government ministers were despatched to present condolences to the bereaved families and to negotiate with town elders over their demands.Meeting those demands will not be easy. They include the dismissal of the city's governor, Feisal Kalthoum, and its political security chief, Atef Najib. Both are regime insiders, and Mr Najib is a cousin of President Assad.  Even if it is, it is impossible to predict whether Syria can ride out the storm unless it makes serious efforts to tackle the deep-seated issues underlying protests throughout the power balanceregion. Aware of the economic hardships grating on many Syrians, the government has already dropped plans to remove subsidies from staple goods, and has raised public-sector salaries.  Tribal towns Deraa and other nearby towns such as Jassem and Inkhil - where related protests are reported to have been mounted - are largely Sunni and heavily tribal.That means that if the grievances remain inflamed, they could spread, take hold and be very hard indeed to stamp out. But it also means that if the government succeeds in winning over the tribal leaders and elders, the situation could be contained.  So the Syrian response at Deraa has been two-pronged - to try to contain the situation with a big security presence, while at the same time at least going through the motions of negotiating over local grievances and promising to investigate the killing of protesters last Friday and punish anyone found to be responsible. Some of those detained have been freed, including school pupils whose anti-regime shop online 2011 graffiti triggered the crisis.
Par eileen le mardi 22 mars 2011

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